The Climate Change Screening (CCS) tool in GPBP portal generates traffic light risk classifications based on the applications of risk threshold database(RTD) records to particular mapped assets or investments of interest.

The records are calibrated based on the best available judgments/data concerning climate exposed likely to trigger acute or chronic damages & losses (D&L) in a given year and the lifetime of the asset.

RTD AND CSS

Climate change screening & RTD

Yegheg

Climate Change Risk Threshold Database (RTD)

Geospatial Planning and Budgeting Platform -> Climate Change screening

The Risk Threshold Database (RTD) compiles climate parameter levels whose exceedence would increase the likelihood of damages and losses (D&Ls) associated with a given asset, investment, or locality. These can be applied to climate change screening of public assets, investments, and sub-national governments using the Geospatial Planning and Budgeting Platform (GPBP).

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Heatwave

Risk trigger N2

Heat

Climate
parameter

Maximum
temperature

Risk trigger N1

Threshold N1

Provided by WTW for NACE codes A 1.2, A 1.3, A 1.6

Degree Celsius

Probability of moderate disruption

20%

70%

90%

Threshold N2

Provided by WB for NACE codes A 1.2, A 1.3, A 1.6

Degree Celsius

Probability of severe disruption

20%

70%

90%

Threshold N1

Provided by WTW for NACE codes A 1.2, A 1.3, A 1.6

Degree Celsius

Probability of severe disruption

20%

50%

80%

Threshold N2

Provided by WB for NACE codes A 1.2, A 1.3, A 1.6

Degree Celsius

Probability of moderate disruption

20%

60%

90%

The Risk Threshold Database (RTD) is structured as follows:

Climate parameters (e.g. heat, wind, precipitation)
Risk triggers that trigger the risk of the climate parameter ( e.g. heat is triggered by max temp and heatwave, precipitation by max precipitation and continuous precipitation etc)
Risk trigger thresholds per asset/investment type (NACE code), which are used to measure the climate risk of certain asset or investment. Thresholds may differ per asset type (e.g. high risk threshold of maximum temperature for a school asset can be 35, while for a powerplant asset 30 degree Celsius) and per source or author (e.g. a research group in Switzerland may find that 30 C is the high risk threshold of maximum temperature for a school asset, while a research group in USA may define 35 C as such threshold )

STRUCTURE

Parameters, triggers, thresholds

THRESHOLDS AND DISRUPTION

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Probability

The probability of different degrees of disruption increase with the level and/or frequency of the climate parameter. Higher temperatures are more likely e.g. to disrupt air and rail transport.

The choice of thresholds can be visualized by a fragility curve, for example setting the probabilities of a certain level of disruption in a given year.

DAMAGES AND LOSSES

Mind your Acute and Chronic Public Infrastructure Services Disruptions

Delays in reinstating / economically and socially productive assets magnified

Damages

Physical Infrastructure Stock Valuations (Book, Replacement, Repair, Market)

Core Fiscal/Budget Risk

Losses

Disruptions in stream of socio-economic activity/benefits, revenue strema (e.g. tolls)

Explore the Risk Threshold Database

Disclaimer

The RTD entries in the GPBP have been provided based on a survey of the existing literature and nomination but sector specialists. As other resources such of this type (e.g., ThinkHazard!), compiled triggers and their application in GPBP do not replace the need for detailed climatel hazard risk analysis and/or expert advice. Information in this screening tool is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or scientific advice or service. The World Bank makes no warranties or representations, express or implied as to the accuracy or reliability of this tool or the data contained therein. A user of this tool should seek qualified experts for specific diagnosis and analysis of a particular project. Any use thereof or reliance thereon is at the sole and independent discretion and responsibility of the user. No conclusions or inferences drawn from the tool or relating to any aspect of any of the maps shown on the tool, should be attributed to the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, its Management, or any of its member countries.

Go to Risk Threshold database

Fragility curves provide for one framework to capture the possible risk profiles of a single or portfolio of non-financial assets and/or investments. The intuition of these curves is that higher exposure levels to a given hazards – e.g., peak gust wind speed (PGWS) due to hurricane – is more likely to result in damages and losses.

Image on the right provides for a stylized fragility curve for extreme temperature (e.g., daily maximum exceeded or heat wave), for example of education delivery in an un-airconditioned school. The likelihood that learning will be impaired grows at higher temperature exposures. At over 40 degrees, this is likely to disrupt half of school operations for at least one day per year. Higher or more protracted temperature extremes may damage structures and increase losses. Curves may be placed to reflect some sets of minor, moderate, severe distributions, as well as full-fledged disruption (e.g., for maximum wind gust illustration).

Fragility curve